Posts Tagged ‘loss severity’

NCCI 2005 Issues Report – a look back, a look ahead

Wednesday, April 6th, 2005

Every spring, NCCI publishes a series of reports that paint a portrait of the workers compensation industry’s health. These include an annual “Issues Report,” followed later by a “State of the Line” report. For those of us who work in the industry, these reports offer a quick look of where we’ve been and provide a cookie trail for where we are likely headed. They are mandatory reading for industry insiders, but they are not just for insurance wonks. If there’s one drum we continually like to beat here at Workers Comp Insider, it’s that the more employers understand about the insurance industry, the better prepared they can be to weather any market vagaries.
The 2005 Issues Report has been released, and in his Annual Snapshot (PDF), executive director Stephen Klingel paints a good news/bad news scenario of a market in transition. Some of his observations include:
Insurer reserve deficiencies were reduced by approximately $5 billion dollars. Although improved, reserve deficiencies are still a problem. In workers comp, losses have the famous “long tail” – that is, they play out over years. Insurers set aside reserves for the estimated cost of the claim. If they don’t set aside adequate reserves, when it’s time to pay the piper, insurer insolvencies occur and havoc ensues. Insurer insolvencies still loom as a potential problem.
Medical costs – particularly prescription drug costs – are still galloping away. Wage replacement was always the largest share of lost time claim cost, but now medical costs represent 55% of the cost, on average. In some states – AL, AZ, IN, KY, TX, and WI – the cost approaches 70%.
Frequency continues to decline. That’s good news. It means that employers are doing a better job in the area of safety. NCCI reports “significant declines occurred in fatal, permanent total, and permanent partial claim frequency.” But on the flip side of the coin, severity is increasing. That means that the medical costs and/or the duration of claims are rising. Not so good.
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) uncertainty looms. The uncertainty about whether Congress will extend TRIA casts a pall over the industry. The clock is ticking, it is due to expire at the end of the year. TRIA provides a federal backstop or safety net for insurers in the event of any catastrophic events. Because workers comp is mandatory coverage, it is a line of insurance that is particularly exposed – insurers can’t exclude terrorism coverage when issuing policies.
The residual market is stabilizing. The residual market is sometimes called the assigned risk pool, or more familiarly, “the pool” or “the market of last resort,” while the rest of the market is known as the voluntary market. If you are an employer, you might get thrown in the pool for any of a number of reasons: your loss experience may be terrible or you may simply be in a high-risk industry. For one reason or another, no one wants to write your policy. NCCI reports that the residual market now represents about 13% of the total premiums, up from about 10.7% in 2003. However, the rate of growth for the residual market appears to be appears to be slowing.
NCCI