Since 1980, there have been ten government shutdowns, and they all have led to federal employees being furloughed.
Shutdowns can be extremely disruptive — for citizens who depend on government services, for the nation, as a whole, and for the furloughed workers.
Most of the shutdowns have ended quickly after rational thought intersected with insanity. But some have been worse than others. The most significant include the 21-day shutdown of 1995–1996, during President Bill Clinton’s administration, over opposition to major spending cuts; the 16-day shutdown in 2013, during the Barack Obama administration, caused by a dispute over implementation of the Affordable Care Act; and the longest, the 35-day shutdown of 2018–2019, during the Donald Trump administration, caused by a dispute over funding Donald Trump’s ego-driven wall on the Mexican border.
We are now staring into the maw of more insanity, but this time things are different. For Continuing Resolution after Continuing Resolution, the nation has limped along. But this week, House Republicans and Democrats crafted an actual appropriations bill for the fiscal year. At 1,547 pages, it’s hefty. And it’s a compromise. No one got everything they wanted, but everyone said they could live with what they got.
Until, that is, about a half hour after they announced the deal, an unelected, mega-rich, very smart, but crazy, person killed the done deal with five words — on social media, no less: “This bill must not pass.”
Elon Musk, who the media now always refers to as, “Elon Musk, the world’s richest man,” like the ready-to-spray skunk who turns up at the victory party, later expanded his demand with the promise to fund a “primary” against any Republican who dared vote for the bill. Because Musk had just spent $277 million helping Donald Trump and other Republicans get elected, he got the Party’s attention, and the live bill of a done deal was suddenly as dead as the nail on Marley’s door.
This, understandably, infuriated the Democrats who had thought they had agreement only to find themselves kneecapped. Richard Neal (D-MA), ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, who was a chief negotiator, was apoplectic. “Around here, currency is your word,” he fumed, adding, “You’ve never won a shutdown, and you won’t win this one,” referring to his Republican colleagues.
Yesterday, Speaker Mike Johnson, now running for his political life, bowed down to the pressure from Olympus and cobbled together a quickie bill he thought would satisfy Musk and Trump. That bill, now down to 178 pages, was immediately thrown back in his face by the dysfunctional Republicans he purports to lead. This morning, he told NPR he “had a plan” for how to satisfy everyone. Swell.
All of which brings us to right now — eight hours from someone turning off all the lights. A few minutes ago, Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters the House had agreed to — something. As the AP reported:
Veering toward a midnight Friday government shutdown, House Speaker Mike Johnson is proposing a new plan that would temporarily fund federal operations and disaster aid, but punts President-elect Donald Trump demands for a debt limit increase into the new year.
If Johnson can actually herd his cats to approving whatever it is he has in his pocket, we’ll be back to doing this all over again in March. Double swell.
Regardless of what happens today, I would like to make three points.
First, this horrendoma should make every American over-the-moon angry, regardless of voting preference. To me, it does all that is necessary to show the extraordinarily corrupting influence money now has in our allegedly democratic process. That one man could toss nearly $300 million into any election, thereby turning those he supported into instant puppets, would be incomprehensible, if it weren’t actually true. Money has always played a big role in elections, but we appear we have reached, and passed, the tipping point for democracy.
And who elected Elon Musk to anything? I didn’t, and neither did you, regardless of who you voted for. In the blink of an eye, he now seems more powerful than Donald Trump, who did not take to social media to demand the first bill be killed until hours after Musk had done.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this is a situation up with which we should no longer put.
Second, the Founders and Framers of our Constitution brilliantly designed three co-equal branches of government — Congress, the Judiciary, and the Executive. John Jay, Alexander Hamilton, and James Madison wrote 85 Federalist Papers between October, 1787, and August, 1788, to persuade the new nation that the carefully crafted Constitution was infinitely better than the Articles of Confederation, because, among other things, each branch would be a check on the others.
I ask you: Does that beautiful construct still inure when five words on social media can stop one of those branches — the Congress — in its tracks and bend it to the will of its allegedly co-equal Executive branch?
Third, I cannot resist once again calling attention to the harm a shutdown will do to the men and women of our armed forces, who have done nothing to deserve it.
The military ranks of E-4, E-5, and E-6, (Specialist [or Corporal], Sergeant, and Staff Sergeant, respectively), make up the backbone of the U.S. armed forces. As of 1 January 2024, the men and women of these three ranks, after accumulating four years experience, earn annual gross income ranging from $36,795 (E-4) to $45,011 (E6). They can make a bit more if they are married with dependents and live off-base. Our E-6 can jump to about $67,000 in that situation.
It should be clear that the members of our armed forces live paycheck to paycheck.
In 2019, in its National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2020, Congress directed the Secretary of Defense to report on food insecurity among members of the armed forces and their dependents. The Department of Defense (DOD) contracted with the Rand Corporation to conduct a study to fulfill Congress’s directive. After an exhaustive analysis, Rand concluded the level of food insecurity was 25.8% in the armed forces, which is nearly double the level in the civilian population. The DOD then published a report citing Rand’s work and outlining steps it would begin taking to address such a high level of need.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, (WIC) are both available to members of the armed forces who qualify for them, but take-up of these programs is tiny (6%), compared to the civilian population, as the Rand study pointed out. No study has yet been done to learn why this is so, but Rand theorized the culture of the military with its “Can do” attitudes, as well as feared stigma—both social and career— attached to asking for aid have a lot to do with it. That’s probably true.
With all of that in mind, earlier this week, in true bi-partisan fashion, the Senate passed, and President Biden has promised to sign, a new National Defense Authorization Act for 2025. The legislation provides for a 14.5% pay raise for junior enlisted service members and a 4.5% increase for others. The bill takes effect 1 January 2025. It’s a big raise, and it will help a lot, but, remember, the junior ranks are starting from a low rung on the economic ladder.
Regardless, tonight, at 12:01 AM to be precise, pay, at the current rates, will stop for the armed forces if Republicans force a government shutdown, and lower and middle rank soldiers, who don’t have much money to begin with, which is shameful, will have none.¹ Of course, they’ll all still be on the job defending America.
As has happened after every shutdown, federal workers, whose pay is stopped, will likely receive retractive back pay following the shutdown, but this will not happen for the armed forces. Under current law, only those deemed “essential” would receive backpay once a shutdown ends and new federal funding is approved.
In 2018, at the last possible minute, Congress approved legislation allowing DOD service members to be paid for the duration of what was to become a 35-day shutdown. The legislation excluded the Coast Guard, because it comes under the Department of Homeland Security, not the DOD.
I’m guessing (but I wouldn’t bet on it) that tonight at about 11:59 PM Congress will do something to ensure our men and women in uniform, all of whom have volunteered to defend the country—and to die if necessary—continue to receive their paychecks. Failure to do so will bring even more ignominy on the fools driving the clown car over the cliff.
Maybe this time they’ll include the 57,000 members of the U.S. Coast Guard.
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¹ The Rand study found that middle and lower ranks had average savings of less than $3,000.
