In 1996, having achieved some good fortune, I bought a case of Dom Perignon champagne. There is one bottle left. I’ve been waiting for the right time to drink it. Whenever this election is decided, I am either going to pop the cork and celebrate, or return it to the shelf it has occupied for these last 28 years.
Until then, here are a few thoughts for your consideration while the champagne chills.
Once again — It’s the economy, stupid!
The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, initial U.S. government estimates showed.
Since the Biden-Harris Administration took office, GDP has increased a cumulative 12.6%, and this month, consumer confidence is up 11% — the biggest monthly increase since March 2021.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the economy grew also, but only at the rate of 0.4%. The U.S. continues to dwarf Europe in growing its economy and rebounding from the COVID pandemic.
If, as all reputable polls show, the economy is the number one concern for American voters, you would think this latest news would seal the deal for Kamala Harris. But in this wacky election, the good news might not move the needle one bit.
Donald Trump says we have “the worst economy ever.”
That is his biggest lie of this election cycle.
After adjusting for inflation, the economy overall is 11.5% larger now than it was at the end of 2019, when, prior to the pandemic, output under Trump reached its peak.
Even the Wall Street Journal agrees. Its headline today reads, “The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy.”
More good economic news
Apparently the result of a push into artificial intelligence and AI-related services, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Meta (Facebook’s parent), and Microsoft all reported third quarter earnings that exceeded the expectations of economists.
Meta gained 19%, year over year; Microsoft gained 16%, and Alphabet was up 15%.
In Meta’s earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s CEO, said, “We had a good quarter driven by AI progress across our apps and business. We also have strong momentum with Meta AI, Llama adoption, and AI-powered glasses.”
All three companies pointed to their Cloud Divisions as the primary driver in revenue growth. Experts say Cloud services can help better integrate AI into daily tasks, as cloud computing enables smaller businesses to capitalize on the technology without needing to invest in their own (expensive) equipment.
Donald Trump says he would “ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.” Whatever that means.
Ten years in, what’s the prognosis for the Affordable Care Act?
Donald Trump wants to replace the ACA with “concepts of a plan.”
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation and Econofact.org, although the percentage of Americans without health insurance has dropped from 16.8% to 9.4% since passage of the Affordable Care Act, almost 26 million people in the United States still lack health insurance. This is far more than in peer nations. where nearly all have universal coverage. Writing for Econofact.org, Mark Sheppard, of the Harvard Kennedy School, reports, “[P]rogress on expanding insurance coverage among the non-elderly has largely stalled since 2016. Meanwhile, economists’ understanding of health insurance has advanced considerably, with a decade of new research elucidating both the clear benefits of insurance but also its surprising tradeoffs that show the thorny challenge of getting to universal coverage within the U.S.’s current system.”
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, at a closed door Republican event in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, Speaker Mike Johnson, throwing a little more red meat to the Republican base, zeroed in on President Obama’s signature health care legislation that has cut the number of uninsured by 44%, by promising a Pennsylvania voter that “massive reform” to the ACA would be “a big part of the agenda” if Republicans win.
“No Obamacare?” the attendee asked Johnson. “No Obamacare,” Johnson responded.
While not offering specifics at his Pennsylvania event (you didn’t think he would, did you?), Speaker Johnson said physician members in the House Republican caucus had “a menu of options” for how to revise the system and “take government bureaucrats out of the health care equation.”
Maybe he should tell that to the women whose reproductive health care rights have been taken away by “government bureaucrats” in the 23 red states that have banned all, or most, abortions.
Donald Trump wants to let each state decide for itself what to do about abortion. That is not exactly going smoothly.
More evidence of our planet’s warming
Japan’s iconic Mount Fuji remains snowless this season, breaking a 130-year-old record. The country’s highest and most sacred mountain usually has a dusting of snow by early October. The Japanese meteorological office has announced the first snowfall each year since its founding in 1894.
But high temperatures and continued rainfall have kept the peak clear as of yesterday, CNN reported. And, although it rained today, 31 October, no snow fell. The previous record for latest snowfall was 26 October.
Japan saw its hottest summer ever recorded this year, and remains unseasonably warm, a result of increasing global temperatures as well as the recent El Niño warm-weather phenomenon.
Donald Trump says global warming “is a hoax” and wants to “drill, baby, drill.”
What about the judiciary?
In his first term, Donald Trump reshaped our federal judiciary by appointing young (many in their 30s and 40s), conservative judges, especially to the Appeals courts, which are one step below the Supreme Court.
Over eight years, President Barack Obama confirmed 55 appellate picks. Trump managed to install 53 in just four years. This was part of his Faustian bargain, made with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell wouldn’t object to Trump’s salacious craziness, and he didn’t, in return for Trump nominating the judges McConnell wanted, and he did.
One big result of that bargain was the overturning of Roe v. Wade. But there were many more, most notably this year’s ruling that presidents are immune from prosecution for “official acts,” no matter how heinous. Sort of describes Donald Trump, doesn’t it?
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have vastly different views of what our nation’s courts should look like. This election will determine which view prevails.
Many people voting for Trump abhor his character and hate his cruel and demeaning nature. But they’ll vote for him because of what they believe he’ll do to the judiciary with four more years of opportunity.
Then again, there are people (like me) who do not want to see that happen.
Presented without comment
Speaking of judges and big Tech, on Tuesday a Russian court fined Google $20 decillion — that’s a 20 with 33 zeros behind it — for removing Russian TV channels from YouTube. The symbolic penalty, more than the world’s total GDP, is another indication that courts around the world, including here in the U.S., are becoming more nationalistic, with global companies caught in the crosshairs.
