Recessions tend to place downward pressure on workers’ compensation frequency, according to NCCI economists who made a recent presentation to the Casualty Actuarial Society. That makes sense. Reduced payrolls means fewer claims. Plus, with potential layoffs looming, some employees may be reluctant to report injuries – which might be part of the reason why there can be an uptick in claim reports after a layoff. The folks at NCCI note that economic expansions are times when frequency spikes – more injuries occur as payrolls climb and new, less experienced employees are added to the work force.
But despite a drop in frequency, safety experts would caution that an economic downturn requires greater vigilance, not less. In a white paper entitled Leading Safety in a Downturn, staff at BST point out that like many other operational areas, safety budgets are often cut and staff are forced to maintain the same standards with fewer resources at their disposal. They also suggest that in a downturn, there is a more complex cultural risk posed by changes in the business: “Even if it is not intended, an organization responding to economic conditions can experience a climate shift that puts a higher focus on production than safety. These shifts are “loud” to the employees who will take away from these experiences long-lasting memories of how they were treated and what they perceive the organization to truly value.”
The authors suggest that a downturn can be a defining moment in a company’s culture, and note that “how you do the hard stuff matters.” They offer five critical actions that business leaders should take to be transformational leaders and to ensure continued safety excellence during a downturn.
More on recessions and workers comp
We’ve talked about workers’ comp and recessions before, specifically, the impact on claims. We cull out this quote from a California study of prior recessions:
“In a six-state study, researchers noted that “…recessions increase back-end cost drivers (i.e., increase the cost per claim) to a greater extent than they increase front-end cost drivers (i.e., increase the number of claims). They state that recessions are ‘characterized by increased use of the system, longer duration claims, and more frequent and larger lump-sum settlements.'”
In a prior post, Down the Rabbit Hole: The Economic Crisis and Workers Comp, my colleague Jon also talked about some other aspects of the current economic scenario that are playing out in workers’ comp. These include the impact of the economy on the illegal immigrant work force, the fact that older workers may be forced to work longer since retirement funds have been destroyed, and the downward pressure that poor investment returns are putting on insurers.
Tags: economy, frequency, leadership, recession, safety
